Talk:Sit down next to Mr Apples/@comment-178.37.113.168-20180211070617/@comment-25219384-20180211100001


 * 1) As I said, failing 5 times in a row a 30% luck challenge has a 16% probability. It's incredible unlikely for no one to encounter this.
 * 2) It's also a fact that some players have succeeded in this particular challenge on the first attempt. (I can personally attest that I succedded in the second attempt, IIRC).
 * 3) BTW: do you trust the math I've included? If so, regardless of any other experience you personally had, 16 out of every 100 players trying for the Yach should expect to fail at least 5 times (or math itself is wrong). Should these 16 people all feel that FBG are cheating them?
 * 4) At one point I had a very strong suspicion that I was failing some particular challenge way more than is reasonable. So I've started recording it (making sure to record all attempts - whether successful or not). At first, it seemed that my intuition was right. But afterenough attempts (you need hundreds of recorded attempts to really have statistical-significat results), you know what? The success/fail ratio avereged out to almost exactly the expected result. In short: observation bias. For statistics and probability only trust actual numbers using a large enough sample base to be statistically-significant.
 * 5) Given the above, it's either a fair luck roll, or for some reason FBG have created special code to specifically fail just your account above all others. I find the former option more plausible.
 * 6) Whether or not the +2 Respectable is worth the effort/resources is a personal choice. Many people don't go for the Yacht at all. You absolutely don't have to do this.