Thread:ZDee/@comment-1264592-20130501155822/@comment-6042046-20130502013949

I'm among those interested in knowing the %'s of rare successes! :D

Optimally, we'd run at least 10,000 trials before declaring an estimated %. Realistically, though, we'd list a rough % after 300+ iterations. 300 tests is still logically a small sample size, but 100-200 are even less adequate. I'm suggesting 300 because many RS's weren't found till 220-280 tries (from reading through prior comments here and on FL forums). And when I say 300, I mean 300 successful attempts. Don't let the failures trip you up.

For instance, with "Up the back stairs"...I distinctly recall my frustration when I first encountered this storylet last year. Like you, I wanted to experience everything at least once. I tried 43 (maybe it was 46) times before stumbling upon the rare success. They were all successes, too! After that, I tried it 14 more times and 2 of them were RS's. 3RS out of ~60S. Several months later with my newest alt Harmony, he got the RS on his 2nd try. :P That means crap, of course. It's obviously not 50%.

We should list the RS% information down as the last line in Challenge Information for lack of a better area. It could read like this: Challenge information

Broad, Shadowy 54
 * 50 - chancy (60%)
 * 59 - modest (70%)
 * 67 - very modest (80%)
 * 75 - low-risk (90%)
 * 84 - straightforward (100%)

[Rare Success is approximately #%.]

For The fellow in the corner, I've hit that guy up for Third City Relics at least 1,500 times. (No joke; I'm grinding for a fancy lease.) Anyway, ~200RS out of ~1,300S (I might be off more or less by 10). Nice and high, right? I've even gotten a RS 3 times in a row ten times and 4 consecutive RS's twice. But if you're just bargaining with that fellow 10-100 times, it'll feel very different. Your results will probably vary anywhere from 9-33%. It'd be quite useful if you also wrote down how many successes (tests) you achieved to conclude the %.

I'm inclined to write this particular RS info like this: [Rare Success is approximately 10-25%. (1,300 tests)]

From my own experience with groups of 20-action attempts, 10-30% is the RS range. I don't want to list 30%, though; it feels too misleading.

Before I edit The fellow in the corner to include my sketchy information, what are your thoughts? Is there a better way of doing this?