Talk:Forgotten Quarter Expeditions/@comment-36380574-20191003165624/@comment-36380574-20191017121843

At 100%, between the possibility of success and failure, only success can exist. Within the category of success, however, lies both the alternate success and success. In the alternate success, RP increases 0 CP every time. In the success, RP increases 0-1 CP every time. Thus the gain for the success is, on everage, 0.5 CP for the success and 0 CP for the alternate success. If we don't know what the percentages of outcomes are successes versus alternate successes, we know that the average result can exist on a continuum between 0-0.5 CP, exclusive of its bounds. I made the assumption that the probabilities of success and alternate success were equal, and thus an average of their gain values of 0 CP and 0.5 CP was appropriate, resulting in a final average of 0.25 CP. My informal observations born out over a small, but significant sample of expeditions results that indicate that this value is likely accurate, but of course we would have to plot a distribution formally across a somewhat larger number of expeditions to be completely sure. Regardless, the current table does not appear to take into consideration the probability of alternate success at all, a concept that is worth noting. Apologies if my explanation is too rambling.