Talk:The Tournament of Lilies/@comment-76.11.71.146-20150831205605/@comment-30321884-20190204180539

I just ran my own simulation, 10.000.000 attempts. Look at these numbers:

1.557 % (1/64.24) of the people won the competition right off the bat. 51.088 % did it in 32 turns or less. 25.58 % (every 4th) in 55+ turns. 9.954 % (every 10th) in 87+ turns. 0.358 % (every 280th) took it 200 turns or even more! (up to 500+ in some instances)

So really, no guaranties. And may the Holy RNG have mercy on you!