Talk:Ambush a few couriers for old times' sake/@comment-2A02:A31A:141:DA80:ED21:1332:4AEF:F0FA-20180414065043/@comment-25219384-20190228065350

I thought so too, but I distrust going by instincts on this, because of observation bias. So I've started collecting data.

So far: 37 rare successes out of 110 attempts.

That's 33.64%. With a confidence level of 95%, the actual rate of the rare success is between 24.9% and 43.3%.

I'll update these numbers when I have more data points.