Talk:A cavalry officer/@comment-24389606-20170107165910

Lets do the math for an end-game player...

Assuming your Shadowy is in the range 251-283, you will get 11 Map Scraps on a regular success, getting a tally of 1.1+0.03+0.01 = 1.14 E

The rare success gives an item worth 14.4 E

If we compare to the Boxful of Intrigue carousel which grants 1.64 E/A, to match that level of return, the probability of rare success needs to be >= 3.77%

(If you somehow raise your Shadowy to 284, it drops to 3.04% required)