Talk:Forgotten Quarter Expeditions/@comment-36380574-20191003165624/@comment-36380574-20191024192241

The change in the bucaneering approach was merely the results of the calculations that I made, which take into consideration failure more signficantly relative to the current calculations. For example, at 50%, the bucaneering approach has an average gain of 0.5 CP of RP on success (0-1 CP) and an average gain of 1.5 CP of RP on failure (1-2 CP). Thus, the average expected RP gain would be 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 1.5 = 1. The average AP gain would be 3 * 0.5 = 1.5. Thus the ratio between the two would be 1 / 1.5 = 0.67, not the 0.33 value currently listedin the table. The effect diminishes and disappears as the chance of success increases due to the reduced signficance of failure. I sourced my numbers for the outcomes of the bucaneering approach from the wiki's page for it, so unless those values are incorrect, I am confident in the correctness of my analysis.

As for the slight calculation descrepencies, that occurs because the ratio values on the table are estimates, and the calculations getting to the Average Progress to 10 RP values are calculated from the non-estimated values. For example, the average RP gain for 100% bucaneering is 0.5 * 1 = 0.5. And the average progress gain is 3 * 1 = 3. The ratio would then be 0.5 / 3 = 0.16666667, which rounds to 0.17. Dividing that actual value into 9 gives an exact value of 54.