Thread:ZDee/@comment-1264592-20130501155822/@comment-6042046-20130506054739

Vae Victis wrote:

btw, i think the proper way to calculate rare success rate is #rare/(#rare+#success) (in case of the stairs its ~8.5%, but i put it as 10% for now) because both regular and rare are successes.

Erm, yes. XD I calculated it that way for my 3rd City Relic hunts, but I skipped a vital step for back stair creeping (as we've obviously seen). Anyway, I think it's better to add the # of tests. For all we know, it's supposed to be 7% RS for the back stairs; we're working with a tiny sample size and people should know.

I'm nearly done harvesting relics. I shall soon have that fancy room in the asylum!

For the luck challenges, we're mostly trying to pinpoint the Fortunate %. Fortunate results include both regular success and rare success. As a byproduct, we'll learn the Unfortunate % which is solely failure. We don't even need to use both formulas above to find out the F and U %'s for a particular challenge. Once we have enough information to properly calculate one, the other will be known. Ex: We discover the U% to be 30%. We subtract that from 100%, and we're left with a F% of 70%.
 * Fortunate % = (#succ+#rare)/(#succ+#rare+#fail)
 * Unfortunate % = #fail/(#succ+#rare+#fail)

(After all, RS for luck challenges also follow the "double roll" code.) Honestly, we shouldn't worry about the RS% for luck-based challenges. There seem to be few luck challenges with a RS. In the above three formulas, #rare will usually be filled with "0". :P Then again, maybe people fail so bad that they never see the RS...what with it being rare and impossible to get unless you first pass the F/U wall.
 * Rare Success % = #rare/(#succ+#rare)

It's okay if the formulas aren't intuitive; they just have to be correct. Besides, the adding and dividing phases won't even begin till there's sufficient numbers for #succ, #rare and #fail. By "sufficient", I mean a total of at least 100 runs. It'd be a miniscule group of results but far more reliable than 10 or 50. Plus, a triple digit number looks sturdier than a double digit number!

Would it help if we gave people a visual analogy?

For luck-based challenges, you're in front of a door. It's either unlocked or locked. By the way, you are a robber trespassing on private property. I don't know what you're here to steal. Porcelain kittens, perhaps? So, back to the doors! You twist the knob. If the door doesn't open, no kittens for you (Unfortunate). If the door opens, you get kittens (Fortunate). But, wait, whoa, this time the door opens and you also discover a big bag of diamonds next to the kittens (Fortunate and rare). Now does everyone understand how these formulas work?!

Man, I kinda suck at analogies...