Talk:Forgotten Quarter Expeditions/@comment-36380574-20191003165624/@comment-36380574-20191015214549

Well, I looked the rival's progress values changing for the bucaneering and cautious approaches and discovered that Rival's Progress gain variability and alternate successes weren't being taken into consideration. For example, at 70% success for the cautious approach, I would say that the rival's progress equals (0.35 * 0.5) + (0.35 * 0) + (0.3 * 0.5), where the first value is the the average gain on success (0-1 RP gain) the second value the average gain on alternative success (0 RP gain), and the final value the average gain on failutre (0-1 RP gain). Dividing this by the expected progress gain of 0.7 gives a ratio of 0.46, not 0.71, and an average progress value of 22, not 14. I've done this for both the buncaneering and cautious values and posted them to my profile, showing that success rate is overall the most important variable in expedition success, regardless of which approach you choose. I have informally observed statistical outcomes on my own cautious expeditions that line up with my probabilistic expectations.