Late-game players may be expected to have a Watchful of 267 to 305, depending on their Destiny, Profession, Ubergoat ownership, and whether they have overcapped their Watchful. An unoptimized player who lacks the above may reasonably attain 278 Watchful, though 267 is notable for being the benchmark for obtaining a 100% success rate on Expeditions. Thus, the chances of success range from 80% to 91%. Including the expected revenue from failures, this leads to the expected profit from this option ranging from 2.2 EPA to 2.37 EPA.
Using second chances is not recommended because the additional action cost decreases the expected EPA.
The following assumes that the player is using a Sudden Insight to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge.
End-game players may be expected to have a Watchful of 267 to 305, depending on their Destiny, Profession, Ubergoat ownership, and whether they have overcapped their Watchful. Including the Second Chance re-roll, this means the chances of success range from 77.9% (for a raw 53% chance to succeed) to 84.8% (for a 61% chance). The expected profits from success accordingly range between 19.44 and 21.2 E. On failure, players receive 2.5E, and the expected profit from failure ranges between .55 E and .38 E. Thus, the overall profit for this action is 20 to 21.6E.
To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must be considered. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are Give a Gift! and the Church/Great Game conflict card, both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may use the leftover Advantages to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action.
Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir have an overall EPA expectation of 2.42 to 2.62; players who do not, who must count obtaining the Insight as a full separate action, have an overall EPA of 2.2 to 2.4.
Watchful 100
